Happy Holiday's All!!
I hope that you are all having an enjoyable vacation. Throughout the semester we have investigated a number of different countries who are trying to make the transition to a legitimate democracy. We discussed early on in the semester how the world seems to be experiencing another wave of democratization whether it be Putin's Russia, Mexcio, Nigeria, and when we return from vacation Iran. We have also discussed, in great lengths, that not all transitions are smooth and easy and in addition that the western version of democracy is not always the best version. Clearly Nigeria has many hurdles to overcome if they are to ever become a legitimate democracy. After reading the Foreign Affairs article entitled Nigeria's Rigged Democracy and using any information you have absorbed from class, please indicate your feelings about Nigeria's future as a democracy.
FYI: In your blog I will be looking for at least one reference to the article.
13 comments:
After reading "Nigeria's Rigged Democracy" and thinking about what we have discussed in class I am optimistic about Nigeria's future as a democracy, or at least as optimistic as possible when considering a country like Nigeria. There are so many problems economically, religiously, ethically, and socially that the country currently faces. Many countries we have studied have had these problems before, but Nigeria is unique in that it has all of these problems. However, I sense that there is some hope for a democracy in Nigeria. The article reads, "Clearly the best hope for the country's future lies with the Nigerians themselves. Millions waited patiently at polling stations in April, despite danger and previous disillusionment, to try to exercise their democratic rights." The key to Nigeria's democracy will be the will of the people to have one. The ordinary citizens of Nigeria have showed that they want to have a democracy and have at times even showed signs that their democratic desires can actually do something for them. During the elections in 2003 an opposition leader won in a northern state because of the people's "insistence that they oversee the balloting themselves." Then, in May of 2006 Nigerians all over the country issued ultimatums to their representatives and the senators got the message. The senate was forced to vote against amendments that would allow former president Obasanjo to run for a third term. The people of Nigeria want a democracy, and the feelings of the people will eventually bring the country to some form of a democracy. It may take decades for it to happen, but I have hope that Nigeria can work out the many problems and issues they are faced with to the extent that they can call themselves a democracy.
I'm less optimistic for Nigeria. The government is riddled with graft, taking in $223 billion in oil revenue alone in a span of eight years. This lack of growth does not allow lifestyles to improve making Nigerians unable to focus on a belief in democracy but rather just hoping they will receive enough to survive. People have also lost hope in the elections, claiming the election of 2003 a "charade".
The positive note was what you already stated with the senators actually listening to the citizens and not taking bribes for Obasanjo's extended term amendment. Although the people do want democracy, the government is attempting to remain strongly authoritarian and since it cripples the middle class, hopes seems very low.
Nigeria has many problems to resolve before they can become a working democracy. The Nigerians will have to overcome ethnic, religious, and social difference. However, the most important problem is the wealth gap and the lack of a middle class. While Nigeria is the world's eighth-largest oil producer, its general population is very poor. The Niger Delta region "generates most of Nigeria's crude oil... Yet it is among the poorest....¨
This wealth gap between the rich and poor makes it impossible for democracy to flourish. It can be seen that corruption is an issue, especially with the local governors who are not held "accountable for how they manage, or mismanage, the funds". This corruption is a large barrier toward democracy.
I also agree with J-lynn that the democratic future of Nigeria lies with the ordinary citizens. It lies in their ability to reject the ideas of ¨Islamic extremists.¨ In the 2007 Foreign Affairs article, "Nigeria's Rigged Democracy", Jean Herskovits states, "with a Muslim population in the tens of millions, many of them poor,is sometimes seen as a potential base for Islamic extremists. No evidence of organized terrorist activity has surfaced..." As of 2010, we can see that times have changed or that terrorist activity has remained hidden for many years. The almost tragedy on Christmas Day 2009 has opened the eyes of Americans to the continued threat of organized terrorists, even in Nigeria. The man who tried to blow up a transcontinental airplane in Detroit, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, was the son of a wealthy Nigerian banker and was involved in extremist activities. While very little information has or ever will be released, the United States now has proof that there may be terrorist activities inside Nigeria. This may change the relationship between the United States and Nigeria; from "friends with benefits" to unfriendly relations. According to this 2007 article, the US buys 10% of Nigeria's crude oil; hoping to lessen trade with middle eastern countries. If relations with Nigeria turn cold, would the US purchases less crude oil from Nigeria? If so, this may negatively effect the Nigerian people and reverse any steps that may have already been made toward democracy.
After reading "Nigeria's Rigged Democracy" and learning about the social and political aspects of this country I am not aas optimistic as Jocelyn with Nigeria becoming a democracy. Out of the countries we have done so far Nigeria has the smallest chance at democracy. For a counry to be "the world's eighth-largest oil producer and one of its top oil exporters" there is no need for it to have one of the worst economies in the world. Kleptocracy in Nigeria has caused all of the oil profits to go where it shouldn't have. Many of the elites in Nigeria have been using the profits for their own benefits and improving their own personal lives. This has left Nigeria's government with a lack of legitimacy. Esentially, with a lack of trust in the federal government "the country's future lies with Nigerians themselves". Although, Nigeria's Obasanjo has been making positive actions towards building a democracy in Nigeria "more has been wrong than right with Nigeria's economy". Many of his policies have lacked transparency and increased the unemployment rate in a terrible economy. Obasanjo's srong will to change Nigeria's future could help to give Nigeria da chance at democracy. But, you won't be able to tell until well into the next leader's, Yar'Adua, term.
It is said that if there is a large enough population with a will to do something, it will be accomplished. Which represents the chances of democracy in Nigeria effectively. As the others have said, the people of Nigeria do wish for a democracy, and they have even beaten out rigged elections on smaller scales, allowing for opposition parties to win in small cities such as Bauchi. Therefore, it is my belief that Nigeria will eventually create a legitimate democracy, despite any of the roadblocks that exist there. Nigeria's transition to a democracy will not be quick by any standard, as there are substantial barriers facing the Nigerian people. There are the three issues that were discussed in class: ethnicity, religion, and regional differences, as well as the issue of economics that was discussed in the article. Although ethnicity, religion, and regional differences harbor mistrust amongst the Nigerian people, I believe that modernization and economic reforms will help the Nigerian people overcome those differences. As we have seen in Iran, ethnic differences can be overcome by time, as the youth becomes less occupied with the quarrels held by previous generations. As shown in the article, the religious differences that exist in Nigeria are not the root cause of any violence, it is merely a secondary hatred that can be ignited by economic difficulties. The author of the article repeatedly makes the statement that religion has yet to spark any massive revolts amongst the Nigerian people, and that they may start if poverty continues in Nigeria. As Killian pointed out, Islamic extremism does in fact exist within Nigeria, as shown by the near-attack on Detroit. However just because a government does not prevent all extremism within their country, and even attempts to cover up some of the tension within the country, that does not mean that the country is disunified or supporting of the extremists actions. Within the United States there exists a large number of sleeper cells containing hundreds, if not thousands, of Islamic extremists. Our government hides this fact in order to maintain a state of peace amongst the people. Although extremists may exist within a country, there is no reason to believe that the governments wish for peace is not sincere. The regional differences do not seem to have a large effect on the big picture within Nigeria either. Modernization and evenly distributed economic progress can settle any differences that exist between regions of a country. It is when a certain piece of a country receives unequal treatment from the government that tension can appear. In my opinion a country can peacefully exist with regional, ethinic, and religous differences. It is economic issues that can open the pandora's box of societal tension within a country.
The article focuses on the Nigerian economy specifically, and as Jeanette stated, it is the Kleptocracy that is crippling the Nigerian economy. Corrupt government officials are the major factor that is leading to the lack of legitimacy within the Nigerian government, with the EFCC investigating 31 of the 36 Nigerian governors for corruption. One of the most distressing things mentioned in the article is the Niger Delta, which produces 95% of the countries foreign exchange earnings yet it is one of the poorest sections of Nigeria. All of which is due to a law passed by Obasanjo during his military reign, in which the state governors posess the tittle to the land, causing the people to gain no benefits from the land, something that is reminiscent of Feudalism, without any protection being given to the people. The total mismanagement of money given to the government also leads to poverty within Nigeria. With money being taken for personal use, corruption, and clientelism at every step of the way very little money makes its way to the people who need it the most, causing an even further rift in the wealth gap. It will be economic reforms that help to fix the issues within Nigeria. With the people gaining the benefits from their work, a middle class will arise to challenge the "glass ceiling" that exists in Nigeria. Groups such as the EFCC are highly popular amongst the Nigerian people, mainly because it creates a rule of law, holding those who are higher up in Nigeria accountable just like anybody else. With transparency within the government, resistance groups such as Mend will also slowly vanish. A legitimate democracy is obtainable within Nigeria, the people want democracy, and they are backed by a courageous press and an independant-minded judiciary. Once the gap between the rich and the poor becomes smaller, Nigerians will be able to surpass any of the other issues dividing them now.
After reading the article, I now understand what a “Rigged Democracy” is. It is an authoritarian system which claims to be a democracy by holding a poor excuse for an election every four years. The government has a lack of interest in the needs of the people which creates a very two sided view of the country. On one side, the government can be supported with facts that the economy is growing five percent a year and that the presence of the EFCC has restrained corruption. However, on the other side, 70% of Nigeria’s citizens are forced to life off one dollar a day, and about 60% of college graduates are jobless. The most startling fact I found was the country’s largest oil revenue in the Niger Delta. The state governors own the land and the people do not get any of the profit. That to me, does not sound like a democracy. The elections seem to be the only democratic institution in the country and they are usually violent and corrupt. The people are beginning to threaten their leaders if they are corrupt, however the leader is still not a true representation of the people. They do not have a stable multiparty system with any kind of history of peaceful transfers of power. Therefore, I do not believe I will live to see a truly democratic Nigeria. That is based off what I have learned from other countries. Mexico especially has taken a very long time just to get where it is at today.
Immediately what struck me as suspicious in this article was the fact that the winner in Nigeria's most recent presidential election, Umaru Yar'Adua, received over 70 percent of the popular vote. This is nearly impossible in true presidential regimes, which Nigeria is, at least supposedly. Considering the fact that such a margin has never been accomplished in the United States, whose system serves as the template for the Nigerian governmental structure, it is obvious that there is obvious doubt being cast upon Nigeria's status as democratic. The existence of free and competitive political elections is a major aspect of democratic institutions, and cannot be circumvented no matter who the winner is. This article managed to highlight all the possible areas of Nigeria's electoral facets that need to be considered, despite its emphasis on America's guilt in the whole problem. While I am not saying that democracy is impossible for the fledgling country (a number of crises involving its neighbors could theoretically unite all opposing factions into a true nation), I am not optimistic about such an occurence. The extreme poverty, lack of private initiatives that the people are given, and outright corruption in Nigeria point almost conclusively to a violent and poverty-stricken future for all Nigerian people. That is not to say that the people don't want democracy, but that circumstances have not been kind and the people have no means with which to realize their dreams.
The article, "Nigeria's Rigged Democracy", reenforces my believe that democracy is a pipe dream in Nigeria's near future. Although attainable in time, too many obsticles, such as corruption, violence, questionable leaders, and questionable legitimacy of the office itself, continue to plague Nigeria to the extent where the positives are too few to break out of the heavy chains of chaos that hold Nigeria back from breaking out of the darkness of corruption and breaching into the light of democracy (I made it deeply philisophical for affect). I think that one of the major problems they have is the inefficiency or the unwilliness of the Nigerian government to effectively maximize the investment of money (especially from oil revenues) in improving the lives of its people, such as health care, edjucation, food, etc. Indirectly due to the focus and relative success in terms of macroeconomic improvement under Obasanjo, and directly due to overwhelming levels of corruption in the Nigerian government, politics, and the country as a whole, "the Nigerian economy grows at five percent a year," but this economic growth and increasing prosperity is not being translated to bettering life for individuals. This governmental failure is exemplified in the article: "Despite eight years of record oil revenues, its infrastructure is crumbling, and most Nigerians lack access to basic medical treatment and education." "Despite vast sums supposedly spent on federal roads, those roads have continued to deteriorate." I see the high poverty level and deteriorating quality of life durring a time of soaring oil revenues is a sign that Nigeria simply cannot dig itself out of the hole (more like a pit with quicksand at the bottom)that it finds itself in. I expect more of the same in Nigeria, which means more of not having democracy.
I believe that Nigeria can not achieve a sense of unity between all the people due to the political culture and the multitude of problems they face as a country. The article "Nigeria's Rigged Democracy" focuses more on the problems in their economy. I agree with what a couple of people have said before, the Kleptocracy is a huge issue right now. In order to fix the economic problems though, Nigeria's people must have a strong enough desire for a democracy, which they have shown. They are making attempts at making a successful, fair democratic system but mistrust in the government is bringing even more issues to the table. Each tribe believes that the other is wrong, and that the way the want to do things is the only way. Different cultural beliefs and backgrounds is not helping the people come together and unite. The quote I agree with most is the same one Jocelyn brought up. "Clearly the best hope for the country's future lies with the Nigerians themselves." But looking at how the Nigerian people today are reacting towards each other and how they've been acting towards each tribe and their government can send a clear signal that democracy can not happen.
Also,I believe that in order for Nigeria to obtain any sort of legitimacy, it needs some outside help and influence. But the country is in such rough shape, no one wants to step in and take control of the situation. Ever since the British left, the Nigerian people have not known how to run a country. They know what they want, and what they need to be legitimate, but they are having a hard time finding what its gonna take to get there. Nigeria has so many issues, and it has become a vicious cycle. They don;t know what problem to solve first. Should they fix and stabilize the economy first? or should they set up a single democratic political system? Or should they tackle the corruption and poverty issue? Or maybe even the unemployment problem they are experiencing?
I see Brennan's point as well. Yes, the elections did happen and people were satisfied at first, but then after, many started claiming that it was a fraud and unfair. This is proof of a "rigged democracy".
Modernization and economic reforms can help to strengthen the democracy and will help to surpress the religous differences, however in order for the economic reforms to be successful will the strong religous and culural differences have to stop. Both of these lean on each other for strength and support and it will be difficult to get one going if the other is holding it back. Unlike Iran and it's situation, Nigeria is made up of many, very nationalistic tribes that all have very different forms of living. In Iran a lot of the problems come from the extremist muslims, but in Nigeria the problems are comning from the extremis muslims, the extremist christians and the random relgions that have no similarities with any other relgion.
Also, what is helping to tear Nigeria apart is the northern and southern regions. In the north they have an abundance of resources that are the only sources of money for Nigeria and in the south they don't have this. These differences in resources could have major problems in years coming because of power reasons. And just like the British did when Nigeria was first starting out, any country could turn the two halves of Nigeria against each other causing a civil war to break out. This would really destroy the chances for democracy for Nigeria.
After reading "Nigeria's Rigged Democracy" i feel doubtful that Nigeria will ever successfully administrate a functional and legitimate democracy. Nigeria has many conflicts to deal with in itself. Its people are divided and don't really see themselves as Nigerians, but as Joycelin said they do want a democracy so there is a push for the Nigerian government to work, but so far it hasn't. In class we saw a chart that showed what happened to all of the "leaders" of Nigeria since its formation in 1960. Most of the leaders were killed or overthrown by the military, this shows that Nigeria doesn't know how it wants to run its country. The people have expressed democratic views but are very divided amongst themselves. So far the only thing democratic is the election every 4 years (which might even be rigged). Another issue in Nigeria is its oil deposits, Nigeria is 8th in the world on oil exports yet its economy is very poor. Kleptocracy has played a big role in the the distribution of the oil in Nigeria. The people are suffering and are unable to get even the most essential items from the government. The money from oil doesn't go to the people it goes to the corrupt government heads. SO the people are less likely to unite under a government that doesn't provide for them, instead they look to their local leaders who do give them what they need. This grows sectionalism and is hurting the Nigerian government. I do not think that without drastic change the Nigerian government will become legitimate.
This is to Brandon,when many work towards a common goal it tends to occur. However, the people of Nigeria do not want this. Yes, most do want a democracy but that does not mean having a democracy with the other regions. Rigged local elections are easier to avoid since a sense of regional nationalism determines the winner in most cases. On the national level, however, candidates must bribe and distort numbers in order to receive votes from those who are indifferent. This indifference by the voters lowers the will to fight this fraud since the powers that influence it are most of the time already in charge.
Economic improvement is created once boundaries are improved and trade is allowed to thrive. This can not occur when each region is at the others throat. This makes it a situation where to improve relations, the economy must improve, and to improve the economy, relations must improve. This, of course, has not occurred making the youth unable to bring less tension. It has stated that recently well-being has worsened, which tends to cause even worse children of different regions, causing gang violence.
The main split in religion is law. Both look at laws completely different. In a lawless country like Nigeria, at the moment anyways, this has barely an effect, but if Nigeria starts improving it will become another roadblock.
I agree that the severe corruption and wasting of capital must be dealt with in order to get Nigeria up and kicking, but there is no short-term, or maybe even long-term, solution in this certain circumstance.
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